CPI inflation
↓ Cooling3.2%
Year over year, latest mock reading
Economic Indicators & Policy
Macro doesn’t have to be murky.
Brian's Markets turns each data point into a story about what’s ahead. Track Federal Reserve policy, inflation, jobs, growth, and the pressure on household budgets in one clear briefing.
Daily snapshot
The Economy in Six Charts
Mock readings refresh daily. Use them to frame the next question before the next release.
Payrolls
↑ Firm+182k
Monthly employment change
Real GDP
↑ Steady2.1%
Annualised quarterly growth
Retail sales
↑ Mixed0.4%
Monthly change, seasonally adjusted
Housing supply
↓ Tight3.4m
Active listings, indexed mock data
Manufacturing
↓ Contracting49.8
Purchasing managers index
Readings are illustrative dashboard data, designed to show how the analysis is organised.
Federal Reserve watch
FOMC Decoder
Policy language moves markets before the rate decision does. We translate the clues into likely paths.
Minutes point to patience
Officials want more confidence that inflation is moving toward target before easing.
Next decision window
Watch wage growth, core PCE inflation, and the tone of the press conference.
Projection checkpoint
The updated dot plot may show how quickly policymakers expect rates to fall.
The likely rate path
Markets currently price a gradual move lower. The path changes when inflation or employment breaks from trend.
Plain-language read: restrictive policy is still doing work, yet the next cut depends on evidence rather than a calendar.
Household economics
Can You Afford a Home?
Mortgage rates and home prices have moved together unevenly. The monthly payment tells the sharper story.
Five-year affordability pressure
20202021202220232024
The index combines mortgage costs, median prices, and household income.
Regional read
Main Street Metrics
Small firms feel rate policy through payroll decisions, credit terms, and customer demand.
NFIB optimism
91.4 index points. Owners remain cautious about sales expectations.
Hiring plans
18% plan to add staff. Skilled labour remains the sticking point.
Wage growth
4.1% annual pace. Pay pressure is easing slowly outside healthcare.
Laredo trade
Cross-border freight remains a key pulse for Texas suppliers and retailers.
Monthly risk monitor
Recession Radar
Four signals shape the composite score. None should be read alone.
Composite reading: 62 out of 100
Yield curve
Still restrictive, though the inversion has narrowed.
ISM surveys
Factories are soft while services retain momentum.
Jobless claims
Claims remain contained, with a close eye on trend.
Credit spreads
Markets show caution without broad stress.
Scenario note: A sharper labour-market slowdown would lift the gauge faster than a modest oil-price shock.